Severe low water on the Rhine has disrupted Upper Rhine barge navigation and contributed to a build-up of fuel oil at Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), according to Alkagesta Market Insights. In its October 2026 outlook, the company describes a split between accumulating coastal supplies and shortages in inland European markets ahead of the fourth-quarter heating season.
Alkagesta reports that the water-level gauge at Kaub, a key bottleneck for Rhine traffic, registered -5 cm on 1 October and 0 cm on 2 October. It characterises the readings as record lows and says drought conditions have brought Upper Rhine barge movements to a standstill. The report presents the river disruption as a major constraint on the movement of refined products between inland locations and coastal ports.
The company identifies Shell Rheinland and MiRO Karlsruhe as major refining complexes affected by the disruption, listing their capacities at 190,000 barrels per day and 316,000 barrels per day respectively. According to its assessment, barge loadings have been cut by as much as one-third. The source describes reductions in loading activity rather than specifying corresponding cuts to refinery processing rates.
Alkagesta puts ARA fuel oil inventories at 961,000 tonnes and reports a week-on-week increase of 18.5%. Separately, it compares the latest stock figure with 842,000 tonnes cited in its 8 September outlook. The company says the coastal accumulation reinforces the disconnect between Rhine logistics and ARA availability highlighted in that earlier publication, while inland consumers face substantial physical supply shortfalls.
The figures and market interpretation are Alkagesta’s assessment, not independently verified findings. The company says its outlook draws on internal analysis and publicly available material, with some numerical inputs derived from or informed by S&P Global Platts information. It also cautions that its information carries no guarantee of accuracy or completeness. The original Alkagesta Market Insights publication is available at https://alkagesta.com/fuel-oil-market-outlook-october-2026/.