Ship recycling is experiencing its most prolonged downturn since the early 1970s, leaving almost a fifth of global fleet tonnage at least 20 years old, Splash 247 reported, citing Clarksons Research. Sustained freight earnings are giving owners an incentive to retain ageing vessels rather than send them for demolition.
During the first nine months of 2026, 273 ships totalling 5.5m gt, or approximately 8m dwt, were sold for demolition. Splash 247 said the volume was 13% below the previous year’s pace and 60% below the average for the 2000s and 2010s. Annual scrapping has remained below 0.5% of worldwide fleet tonnage for five consecutive years, a rate lower even than during the 2006–08 shipping supercycle.
The resulting build-up of older ships now includes more than 340m gt aged at least 20 years, an increase of 90% over five years. That age group accounted for 12% of the fleet in 2021. Ships aged 25 or more now total over 150m gt, up 75% over the same period, while tonnage older than 30 years has reached a record 68m gt.
Tankers have the largest elderly share among the sectors compared in the report, with 22% of capacity more than 20 years old, against 8% five years earlier. The equivalent container fleet share has doubled to 16%, alongside an orderbook exceeding 40% of existing capacity. Bulk carriers and LNG ships have smaller older-vessel proportions, at 12% and 10% respectively.
Higher demolition values have not displaced the appeal of trading or selling ships secondhand. Scrap steel prices on the Indian subcontinent have increased by 20–25% this year, but the ClarkSea Index reached a record $84,951 a day on Friday, according to Splash 247. A separate, latest Clarksons recycling assessment put year-to-date demolition sales at 8.4m dwt, with buying interest continuing in Bangladesh and Pakistan and Indian recyclers preferring specialised vessels.
Cash buyer GMS described the final quarter as a waiting game: recyclers remain willing and able to purchase ships, while owners retain earnings opportunities and resale alternatives. Splash 247 noted that the expanding pool of elderly vessels could eventually offer scope to remove substantial capacity when freight markets weaken.